When Kansas City Chiefs clawed back from a 20-9 fourth-quarter deficit to beat the Indianapolis Colts 23-20 in overtime on December 8, 2025, it wasn’t a statement win—it was a lifeline. Quarterback Patrick Mahomes, despite four sacks, one interception, and zero touchdown passes, threw for 352 yards and engineered the game-winning drive with a 31-yard bomb to Xavier Worthy and a 21-yard strike to Rashee Rice, setting up Harrison Butker’s clutch field goal at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis. The win kept the Chiefs alive—but it didn’t move them up. They’re still tenth in the AFC playoff race, buried behind the Houston Texans on tiebreakers. And here’s the thing: their path to the playoffs just got harder.
The AFC Playoff Ladder Is a Maze of Tiebreakers
The AFC playoff picture after Week 12 is less a bracket and more a spreadsheet. The Baltimore Ravens (11-0) sit comfortably at No. 1. The Miami Dolphins (11-0) are second. But then it gets messy. The Houston Texans (6-5) and Kansas City Chiefs (6-5) are deadlocked in wins. The difference? Conference win percentage. Houston won six of their eight games against AFC opponents. Kansas City? Five. That’s it. One win. That’s the margin between a playoff berth and a long winter. The Cincinnati Bengals (3-8) edged out the Cleveland Browns (3-8) because they beat them head-to-head. The Las Vegas Raiders (2-9) leapfrogged the New York Jets (2-9) thanks to strength of victory. The math is brutal. The Tennessee Titans (1-10) are mathematically eliminated. So are the Raiders, Jets, and Browns—according to NFL.com’s playoff elimination tracker from late November. But the Chiefs? They’re still breathing.Patrick Mahomes’ Miracle Isn’t Enough
It’s easy to romanticize Mahomes. The clutch throws. The impossible escapes. The Super Bowl MVP aura. But this game wasn’t about magic. It was about survival. He didn’t run for a first down. He didn’t find the end zone. He was sacked four times. He threw a pick that nearly ended the game. And yet, with 2:17 left in regulation, he led a 72-yard drive that ate up nearly half the clock. That’s not luck. That’s leadership. But leadership doesn’t change tiebreakers. The Chiefs need to win at least four of their final six games to have a realistic shot. And three of those games are against teams with winning records—all at Arrowhead Stadium, where they’re 5-1. That’s good. But it’s not enough. They still need help.
Christmas Day Is Their Make-or-Break Moment
The real pressure cooker comes on December 25, 2025. The Chiefs travel to Empower Field at Mile High to face the Denver Broncos (10-1), the AFC’s second seed. Lose that game? Their playoff hopes become a statistical footnote. Win it? They ignite a firestorm. The Broncos haven’t lost since Week 3. They’ve got the league’s best defense. And they’re hungry to prove they belong in the conversation with the Ravens. For the Chiefs, it’s not just a game—it’s a referendum on their season. Mahomes said it himself after the Colts win: “We fought back when it mattered most. This isn’t over—we control what we can control at home.” He’s right. But home games against the Los Angeles Chargers (December 18), Buffalo Bills (January 1), and Las Vegas Raiders (January 4) aren’t gimmes. The Chargers are 7-4. The Bills are 8-3. The Raiders? They’re bad, but they’re playing for pride—and they’ve beaten better teams.The NFC Is a Different Story
While the AFC spirals into tiebreaker chaos, the NFC is clearer. The Los Angeles Rams (9-2) lead the division and sit at No. 1 in the conference. The Philadelphia Eagles (8-3) hold the second seed—not because they’re better than the Chicago Bears (8-3), but because they’ve won more games within the NFC. The Seattle Seahawks (7-2) are in the mix too, holding the third seed after a tiebreaker win over the Rams based on division record. The NFC West is tight. The NFC East is a battle. But there’s no drama like the AFC. No team in the NFC has a realistic path to the playoffs that requires winning four of six games against division rivals. The Chiefs do. And they’re running out of time.
What’s Next? Three Weeks to Change Everything
The Chiefs have three weeks to turn their season around. December 18: Chargers at Arrowhead. December 25: Broncos in Denver. December 28: Patriots on the road. If they go 3-0 in those games, the narrative flips. They’re not just alive—they’re dangerous. But if they lose even one? The whispers start. “Is Mahomes aging?” “Is this the end of the dynasty?” The league doesn’t care about legacy. It cares about records. And right now, the Chiefs are one win behind the Texans in the only tiebreaker that matters: conference wins. They need to win three of their last four home games and hope Houston stumbles. It’s a tall order. But in the NFL, miracles still happen.Frequently Asked Questions
How did the Houston Texans beat the Kansas City Chiefs in the tiebreaker?
The Houston Texans hold the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Kansas City Chiefs because they have a better win percentage in AFC games (6-2) compared to the Chiefs’ 5-3. This is the first tiebreaker used after overall record, and it’s why Houston sits at No. 9 in the AFC despite having the same 6-5 record. The Chiefs’ loss to the Texans in Week 7 was a key factor in this gap.
Can the Kansas City Chiefs still make the playoffs without winning the AFC West?
Yes. The AFC doesn’t require winning a division to qualify for the playoffs. The top seven teams in the conference make it, regardless of division standing. The Chiefs can still clinch a wild-card spot by finishing in the top seven overall. But they must win at least four of their final six games, and they need help—specifically, the Texans to lose at least two of their remaining games against playoff-caliber opponents.
Why is the Christmas Day game against the Broncos so critical?
The Denver Broncos (10-1) are the AFC’s second seed and have the league’s best defense. A loss to them would drop the Chiefs to 6-6, making it nearly impossible to catch the top seven teams with only two games left. A win would keep them at 7-5 and keep the pressure on Houston. It’s not just a game—it’s a potential playoff decider with national TV exposure and emotional weight.
Is Patrick Mahomes’ performance declining?
Not by metrics, but by context. Mahomes still ranks among the league’s top five in passer rating and yards per attempt. But his sack total (31 this season) is up, and his red-zone touchdown rate has dipped slightly. He’s not falling apart—he’s being pressured harder. Teams are playing more zone coverage and daring him to beat them with short passes. His ability to extend plays and make big throws under duress remains elite, but the margin for error is shrinking.
What’s the likelihood the Kansas City Chiefs miss the playoffs?
According to NFL’s official playoff probability model (updated December 9, 2025), the Chiefs have a 38% chance of making the postseason. That’s higher than the Las Vegas Raiders (12%) or Cleveland Browns (8%), but far below the Houston Texans (72%). Their fate hinges on winning at least three of their final four home games and hoping for two losses by Houston or Cincinnati.
When do the NFL playoffs start, and who hosts the first round?
The NFL playoffs begin on January 10, 2026, with the Wild Card Round. The top two seeds in each conference receive a first-round bye. The No. 3 seed hosts the No. 6, and the No. 4 hosts the No. 5. If the Chiefs make it as a 6th seed, they’d play on the road. If they finish as a 5th seed, they’d host at Arrowhead Stadium—their best shot at advancing.